Syllabus Risk

BADM 574 MSTM subterfuge and Risk abbreviation Spring 2013 Lectures ADV TR 930 am 1050 am in 2043 BIF GRD TR 1100 am 1220 pm in 2043 BIF Final Exam 7-10 pm, Tuesday May 7, 2013 ADV 2041 BIF GRD 2043 BIF teacher H. Dharma Kwon, Assistant Professor of Business Administration, College of Business, University of Illinois Of? ce Email Phone Of? ce Hours 365 Wohlers Hall emailprotected edu 217-333-3522 Tuesdays 2 4 pm or by appointment Note When you agitate email to the instructor, your subject line essential contain the melt title. During the of? ce hours, you can call my of? ce.Course Objectives This course is about employ numbers to agnise better decisions. The focus bequeath be on handson use of numeric tools for solution of oversight puzzles frequently involving risk and uncertainty. Speci? c course objectives (1) Introduce you to practical yet sophisticated tools suitable for modeling and resoluteness complex managerial problems with risky outcomes, and (2) improve 1 your skill and experience with the use of spreadsheet tools for analysis of management decision problems. We will learn to mathematically model business decision problems and apply their analytical skills to hardheaded business contexts.The material covered is useful for executives in all professional areas of business, including but not special(a) to accounting, ? nance, marketing, information systems, operations management or any separate area where it is all important(p) to combine quantitative analysis with expert intuitive judgment. Prerequisite This course builds upon some rudimentary knowledge of mathematics (probability and statistics) and staple fiber pro? ciency with Microsoft Excel. Required Materials 1. To purchase the required electronic course pack, go to https//create. mcgraw-hill. com/shop/ and search for the chase ISBN number 1121833926.The course pack contains all required sequels and some readings. 2. TreePlan, RiskSim, and SensIt (provided by the MSTM pro gram and downloadable from Compass 2g course website) 3. A laptop computer and Microsoft Excel 2010 (for Windows) or 2011 (for Mac) installed in your laptop Evaluation Methods There are quadruplet components to the evaluation Case Summary Minicase Analysis Group Project Final Exam Cases Summary near every week, individual case summary assignment(s) are due. We will discuss cases in illuminate, so it is important to read and understand the problems posed by the cases before coming to the classroom.The summary of each case must(prenominal) not exceed one page, and it must be submitted on-line via Compass. (PDF format is strongly preferred). It will be graded on a pass/fail basis. In order to pass a case summary assignment, you must show suf? cient evidence that you fetch read the case and understood the gist of it. 2 10% 30% 15% 45% Minicase Analysis Minicase analyses (problem sets) will be assigned roughly in one case a week and graded. The minicases are designed to help you l earn the mechanics of the methods covered in class and to give you an opportunity to apply the concepts in simple and illustrative contexts.Please note that minicase assignments require careful variation and analysis of the given problems. Points will be deducted if you misinterpret the information given in the case assignments. hold forth your assumptions and clearly explain your quantitative reasoning. Answers (even correct answers) without logical and quantitative reasoning will not clear credit. Minicase analysis assignments will be post on Compass. This is sometimes an individual assignment but sometimes a team assignment. Late assignments are generally not accepted. Group Project In the stretch out week of the course, each team will submit an original minicase.The minicase should be based on a real business situation (in the past, in the present, or in the future) and must be analyzed using one or more of the methods or concepts discussed in this course. If youd like, you can also add other methodology that is not discussed in class. Each case must consist of two lift offs. In start 1, a business decision problem must be presented with essential information. It can be a ? ctional situation, but it must be based on a real business situation. Part 1 might look like one of the short cases that we analyze in this course and the text (excluding exhibits) must not exceed 5 pages typed ingle-spaced in 12 pt font. (See Dardens cases for the document format). In part 2, the solution to the problem posed in part 1 must be given. When you construct the minicase, you should have pedagogical values in mind, i. e. , think of writing a teaching case or an open-book tryout for future MSTM students at the University of Illinois. Your submitted work will be evaluated based on how well the decision analytical framework is utilized to solve a given (hopefully non-trivial) problem (50%) and its pedagogical value or the practicality of the problem (50%).Final Exam Ther e will be an in-class 3-hour-long open-book, open-notes, and open-laptops ? nal exam. You are NOT allowed to share your laptops with other students or send/receive emails during the ? nal exam. If you miss the ? nal exam without prior discussions with the instructor or without university-authorized emergencies, then you will receive null credit. 3 Practice Problem Sets Practice problem sets and their solution keys will be regularly posted on Compass. They are designed to help you understand the material and to provide practice using non-homogeneous concepts and techniques discussed in class.These assignments will not be collected or graded. However, these problem sets will be face-saving for the quiz and the ? nal exam. Some practice problems will be discussed as examples in class. Grades The ? nal letter grade will be based upon each individuals level of understanding and learning evidenced by the weighted cumulative points from all four components shown in Evaluation Methods. L aptop and Electronic Communications indemnity You are required to bring your laptop to each class you will have to use your laptop to download ? es and participate in problem-solving activities in class. You are not allowed to check e-mail or send text messages using your cell phone or laptop. Set your cell phone to taciturn mode. Academic Integrity and Honor Code You are expected to behave ethically throughout the consideration and follow the norms and guidelines outlined by the University on academic integrity. 4 Course modules module 1 takings Reading Cases Module 2 Topic Reading Cases Module 3 Topic Reading Cases Module 4 Topic Reading Cases Module 5 TopicReading Cases Module 6 Topic Reading Cases Module 7 Topic Reading Cases Value of Information and Control Risk Management Harimann International optional module (if time permitted) Downstream Decisions Merck & Co. International Guidance Control Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Using SensIt CyberLab (A), Supp, (B) Liquid Gold Probability Assessment from Historical Data Probability Distributions Commerce tap house Simulation Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim Georges Revised Forecast and Addendum ingest and Statistical Inference Jade Shampoo (A) and (B) Decisions under Uncertainty DTP Ch. Georges T-Shirts DTP Decision Tree dry land (http//www. public. asu. edu/kirkwood/DAStuff/decisiontrees/index. html) Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim (http//www. treeplan. com/chapters/RiskSim-Guide243. pdf) Sensitivity Analysis Using SensIt (http//www. treeplan. com/chapters/SensIt-Guide-145. pdf) 5